Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 85

Detroit Lions 3 – Atlanta Falcons 0

(:30) 3-J.Fox punts 52 yards to ATL 33, Center-47-S.Daly. 35-A.Williams to ATL 46 for 13 yards (55-D.Barnes).

The Three Options

GO -2.48 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.47 EP
53% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 85, worth -5.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model