4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 33

Arizona Cardinals 6 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(10:14) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 86-Z.Ertz ran ob at IND 17 for 16 yards. Indianapolis challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep left to 86-Z.Ertz.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.34 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 33, worth -1.49 EP
KICK +0.90 EP
  • 75% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 43, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model