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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 12 at the 47

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Arizona Cardinals 6

What Actually Happened

(5:58) 8-R.Sanchez punts 39 yards to ARI 8, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.58 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 47, worth -2.56 EP
KICK -0.76 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 13, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model