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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 36

Indianapolis Colts 12 – Arizona Cardinals 13

What Actually Happened

(5:45) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass incomplete short right to 11-M.Pittman.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.83 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 36, worth -1.95 EP
KICK +0.45 EP
  • 68% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model