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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 19

Indianapolis Colts 12 – Arizona Cardinals 13

What Actually Happened

(:07) 6-M.Badgley 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.06 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 19, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 29, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model