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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 23

Arizona Cardinals 13 – Indianapolis Colts 15

What Actually Happened

(11:12) 5-M.Prater 41 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-R.Winslow.

The Three Options

GO +1.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.53 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 23, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 33, worth -1.53 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model