Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 57

Arizona Cardinals 13 – Indianapolis Colts 22

(5:25) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep middle to 18-A.Green.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP

What Happened

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.30 EP
59% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 57, worth -2.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model