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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 75

Jacksonville Jaguars 12 – New York Jets 13

What Actually Happened

(5:19) 9-L.Cooke punts 59 yards to NYJ 16, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 28 for 12 yards (54-D.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.10 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 75, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 32, worth -1.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model