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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 42

New York Jets 13 – Jacksonville Jaguars 12

What Actually Happened

(1:55) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 10-B.Berrios to JAX 32 for 10 yards (5-R.Ford).

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.36 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 42, worth -1.90 EP
KICK +0.03 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model