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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 24

New York Jets 13 – Jacksonville Jaguars 12

What Actually Happened

(9:51) 15-E.Pineiro 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.60 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.92 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24, worth -0.71 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 34, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model