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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 8

New York Jets 16 – Jacksonville Jaguars 12

What Actually Happened

(5:11) (Field Goal formation) 7-B.Mann left end to JAX 4 for 4 yards (32-T.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO +2.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.17 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 8, worth +0.19 EP
KICK +2.11 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model