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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 1

New York Jets 16 – Jacksonville Jaguars 15

What Actually Happened

(9:24) 69-C.McDermott reported in as eligible. 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 69-C.McDermott for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.71 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 1, worth +0.55 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -1.02 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model