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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 33

Houston Texans 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 12

What Actually Happened

(11:12) 16-D.Eberle 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.44 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.41 EP
KICK +1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model