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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 7

Houston Texans 24 – Los Angeles Chargers 15

What Actually Happened

(8:57) 16-D.Eberle 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.35 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 7, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model