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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 71

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(14:01) 8-A.Siposs punts 39 yards to NYG 32, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-21-A.Chachere. PENALTY on PHI-21-A.Chachere, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 32.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +2.20 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 71, worth -3.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 29, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model