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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 11 at the 23

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(7:11) 4-J.Elliott 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

The Three Options

GO +0.75 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.12 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 23, worth -1.09 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 33, worth -1.57 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model