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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 64

New York Giants 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(5:02) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to PHI 26, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 18-J.Reagor to PHI 40 for 14 yards (35-D.Dennard, 39-E.Penny).

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.89 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 64, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 22, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model