Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 74

New York Giants 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 13

(7:01) 9-R.Dixon punts 31 yards to PHI 43, Center-58-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.46 EP
66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 74, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model