Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 13 at the 66

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

(12:24) 9-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to PHI 19, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 18-J.Reagor to PHI 15 for -4 yards (47-C.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -2.18 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.38 EP
72% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 66, worth -3.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model