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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 22

New York Giants 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 34

What Actually Happened

(5:05) (Shotgun) 2-M.Glennon pass short right to 88-E.Engram to PHI 14 for 8 yards (27-Z.McPhearson).

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
What Happened
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.60 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 22, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 32, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model