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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 30

Philadelphia Eagles 34 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(1:56) (Shotgun) 35-B.Scott up the middle to NYG 30 for no gain (23-L.Ryan).

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
What Happened
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +1.49 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 30, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 40, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model