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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 44

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(3:24) 9-R.Dixon punts 28 yards to PHI 16, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 18-J.Reagor.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.89 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 44, worth -2.61 EP
KICK -1.10 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP