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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 17 at the 85

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(3:14) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 30 yards to SF 45, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.04 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.50 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 85, worth -5.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 43, worth -2.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model