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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 20 at the 43

Tennessee Titans 0 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(1:27) 6-B.Kern punts 33 yards to SF 10, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 11-B.Aiyuk.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.46 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.95 EP
KICK -0.36 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model