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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 76

Tennessee Titans 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 6-B.Kern punts 39 yards to SF 37, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-21-M.Farley.

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.63 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model