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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 67

Carolina Panthers 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

What Actually Happened

(1:48) 10-L.Edwards punts 40 yards to TB 27, Center-44-J.Jansen. 38-K.Barner to TB 31 for 4 yards (4-J.Carter).

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.11 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 25, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP