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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 – Carolina Panthers 6

What Actually Happened

(8:39) 3-R.Succop 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-19-S.Hofrichter.

The Three Options

GO +2.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.63 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 3, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP