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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 20 at the 85

Carolina Panthers 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22

What Actually Happened

(6:37) 10-L.Edwards punts 48 yards to TB 37, Center-44-J.Jansen. 38-K.Barner to TB 43 for 6 yards (50-J.Stanford).

The Three Options

GO -3.31 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.87 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 85, worth -4.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 43, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model