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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 11 at the 24

Carolina Panthers 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29

What Actually Happened

(11:56) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 2-Dj.Moore.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
What Happened
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.00 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.96 EP