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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 48

Carolina Panthers 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29

What Actually Happened

(9:59) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at CAR 45 for -7 yards (51-K.Minter).

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.25 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.43 EP
KICK -1.06 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.43 EP