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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 11 at the 51

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 32 – Carolina Panthers 6

What Actually Happened

(2:16) 19-S.Hofrichter punts 38 yards to CAR 13, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson. PENALTY on CAR-34-S.Chandler, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at CAR 13.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.49 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 51, worth -1.49 EP
KICK -0.56 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model