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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 56

Washington Commanders 7 – Dallas Cowboys 28

What Actually Happened

(6:37) 5-T.Way punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.55 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 56, worth -3.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 17, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model