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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 16 at the 68

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(11:42) 5-B.Anger punts 47 yards to WAS 21, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 1-D.Carter to WAS 28 for 7 yards (84-S.McKeon; 29-C.Goodwin).

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +3.13 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 68, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 26, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model