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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 40

Dallas Cowboys 35 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 86-D.Schultz to WAS 26 for 14 yards (20-B.McCain). DAL-86-D.Schultz was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. PENALTY on WAS-20-B.McCain, Unnecessary Roughness, 13 yards, enforced at WAS 26.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
What Happened
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +2.15 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 40, worth -0.69 EP
KICK +1.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.88 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.30 EP