Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 75

Washington Commanders 7 – Dallas Cowboys 42

What Actually Happened

(14:05) 5-T.Way punts 53 yards to DAL 22, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, downed by WAS-2-D.Brown. Injury Update: Francis Bernard has a groin injury and has been ruled out for the remainder of the game.

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
67% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 75, worth -4.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model