Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 16 at the 84

Dallas Cowboys 42 – Washington Commanders 7

(12:05) 5-B.Anger punts 54 yards to WAS 30, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 1-D.Carter to WAS 37 for 7 yards (87-J.Sprinkle).

The Three Options

GO -2.90 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.70 EP
71% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 84, worth -4.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model