Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 15 at the 90

Washington Commanders 7 – Dallas Cowboys 42

(6:12) 5-T.Way punt is BLOCKED by 32-C.Clement, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, RECOVERED by DAL-59-C.Golston at WAS -1. TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -3.60 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.75 EP
71% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 90, worth -5.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model