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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 21

Washington Commanders 7 – Dallas Cowboys 49

What Actually Happened

(2:19) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete short middle to 13-A.Humphries (30-A.Brown).

The Three Options

GO +2.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.49 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.91 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 31, worth -1.59 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model