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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 90

Dallas Cowboys 56 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(9:56) 5-B.Anger punts 51 yards to WAS 39, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.36 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 90, worth -5.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.59 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 47, worth -2.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP