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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 25

Washington Commanders 7 – Dallas Cowboys 56

What Actually Happened

(4:03) (Shotgun) 8-K.Allen pass short left to 13-A.Humphries to DAL 19 for 6 yards (25-N.Wright).

The Three Options

GO +1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.15 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 35, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model