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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 12 at the 71

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(14:03) 5-B.Anger punts 57 yards to ARI 14, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 13-C.Kirk to ARI 9 for -5 yards (29-C.Goodwin).

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.34 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 71, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 29, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model