4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 14 at the 58

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(11:09) 5-B.Anger punts 42 yards to ARI 16, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by DAL-57-L.Gifford.

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.32 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 58, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 18, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model