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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 59

Arizona Cardinals 22 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(12:04) 14-A.Lee punts 47 yards to DAL 12, Center-46-A.Brewer. 88-C.Lamb to DAL 10 for -2 yards (28-C.Washington).

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.28 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 59, worth -2.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 18, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model