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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 20

Arizona Cardinals 22 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(8:36) 5-M.Prater 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.58 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 20, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP