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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 25

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(2:39) 2-G.Zuerlein 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +5.02 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25, worth -0.71 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 35, worth -1.62 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model