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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 59

Cleveland Browns 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(12:47) 2-D.Colquitt punts 42 yards to PIT 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 22 for 5 yards (94-P.Gustin).

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.31 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP