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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 12

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(8:24) 9-C.Boswell 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-10-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +1.77 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.99 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 12, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 22, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model