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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 11 at the 96

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(3:09) 10-C.Waitman punts 53 yards to CLE 43, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to PIT 48 for 9 yards (44-D.Watt, 24-B.Snell).

The Three Options

GO -3.61 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.65 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 96, worth -5.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

PUNT -2.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 53, worth -2.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model