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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 32

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(9:51) 9-C.Boswell 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-10-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.34 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 32, worth -1.55 EP
KICK +0.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 42, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model