4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 30

Pittsburgh Steelers 16 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(5:53) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-10-C.Waitman. Penalty on CLE-97-M.Jackson, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, offsetting. Penalty on PIT-79-R.Coward, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, offsetting.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.06 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +0.99 EP
What Happened
  • 75% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 40, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model